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S&P's Special Reports: U.S. Insurance Outlooks 2008
For North American Insurers In 2008, Discipline Will Be The Key To Success: Standard & Poor's outlook for the North American life, health, property/casualty insurance, and reinsurance sectors is stable due to several years of strong earnings, improved levels of capital adequacy, ample liquidity, and strong balance sheets. However, the number of ratings raised over the next six months is expected to be offset by the number of ratings lowered.
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S&P's Special Reports: From Carbon to Green
Can Not-For-Profit Power Companies Juice Up Their Environmental Standing? The search for environmentally friendly generation boils down to a simple choice: coal versus the other technologies. There are a growing number of ways to mitigate coal's environmental impact, including scrubbers, integrated gasification combined-cycle generators, and carbon capture and sequestration technology. These range in effectiveness from protective to almost wholly experimental. ...
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S&P's Special Reports: The Fundamentals Of Structured Finance Ratings
The Fundamentals Of Structured Finance Ratings: The complexity of the structured finance rating system has many people concerned. Since these securities have become an important tool in financial markets, investors need to know the particulars and methods for determining these ratings. Constant scrutiny is a mainstay of this process and the interaction between ratings agencies and arrangers is considered a pre-requisite for a healthy market.
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S&P's Special Reports: Global Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economy Is Ailing But It's Still Only A Mild Cold: It appears the U.S. economy is going through a tough time but, despite a weak housing market, the outlook for the future remains solid. The trade deficit is shrinking, inflation and interest rates are stable, and the consumer continues to spend. However, there still might be some roadblocks ahead, including rising oil prices or a possible increase in bond yields.
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S&P's Special Reports: Various U.S. First-Lien Subprime
Various U.S. First-Lien Subprime RMBS Classes Downgraded: On July 12, 2007, Standard & Poor's addressed the July 10, 2007, CreditWatch actions on 612 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by U.S. first-lien subprime mortgage collateral rated from the fourth quarter of 2005 through the fourth quarter of 2006. Standard & Poor's also addressed the CreditWatch actions taken before July 10, 2007, involving 70 classes of RMBS backed by first-l...
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S&P's Special Reports: Basel II Creates An
Basel II Creates An Array Of Possibilities For Global ABCP: Changing regulatory capital regimes and capital charges on liquidity provided to asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) have led to a proliferation of conduit structures that minimize third-party liquidity costs. Issuance of extendible notes using the collateral's market value as well as the securitized assets' cash flow has accelerated considerably as we get closer to full implementation of the Basel II Cap...
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S&P's Special Reports: Russian Power Sector Reform
Russian Electric Utility Reform: Generating Energy-And Risk: Will the transition from a state-owned, marginally profitable industry to a competitive, private sector-based one go smoothly? Probably not. Nowhere else has power restructuring followed the script. Will Russia learn from other countries' experiences in the past 17 years? Probably so.
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S&P's Special Reports: Can U.S. Insurers Dodge The Next Downturn?
After A Record 2006, Can U.S. Insurers Maintain Their Discipline? For the insurance industry as a whole, 2006's results were the highest in this decade. According to the Insurance Services Office, U.S. property/casualty insurers' net income was $63.7 billion for 2006, a 44.3% increase from 2005's catastrophe-laden results. Few disasters in 2006 and strong price increases from prior years let the industry catch the perfect wave in 2006 and achieve record profits. ...
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S&P's Special Reports: The Leveraging Of America
The Leveraging Of America: A Rising Tide Of Riskier Credit: You don't have to look too far to see that credit risk has been rising over the past few years. LBOs, dividend recaps, more aggressive financial policies, investors hungry for yield, and cheap money have made the credit landscape more challenging than ever before. Declining credit quality is nothing new, as credit ratings have been falling for more than two decades, but over the past three years, the slid...
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S&P's Special Reports: The Credit Impact Of Climate Change
The Cost Of Keeping Our Cool: Global Warming And The Economy: The planet's environment is going through an epochal upheaval in weather patterns. So what might this mean for economic growth? Clearly, the costs of controlling carbon emissions remain highly uncertain, primarily because of the technological variables. Still, as the technologies become better defined, the range of cost estimates is narrowing, and now at least some reasonable projections are becoming ava...
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S&P's Special Reports: The Global Outlook For Metals & Mining
Global Growth Has Metals Prices Gleaming: The global economy keeps chugging ahead, and with it so does demand for nickel, copper, iron ore, bauxite, and other metals. The combination of strong demand and weak supply has strengthened the credit quality of mining and metal companies around the world, and Standard & Poor's doesn't foresee any quick changes in either of these fundamentals.
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S&P's Special Reports: Despite Risks, Global Public-Private Partnerships Are On The Upswing
Despite Risks, Global Public-Private Partnership Deals Are On The Upswing: Governments around the globe have struggled to deliver important public infrastructure investments, as well as control costs without reducing services. To meet growing fiscal demands, governments are increasingly interested in forming public-private partnerships (PPPs) to improve service levels, control costs, and provide the social and physical infrastructure required by growing populations...
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S&P's Special Reports: Islamic Finance Update: Global Expansion Gains Momentum
Chief Drivers Behind Islamic Finance's Global Expansion: Mounting demand around the world for Sharia-compliant financial products and services is fueling the Islamic banking industry's buoyant expansion. More and more banking clients are choosing to invest in an ever-broader range of Islamic financial instruments available through long-established Islamic banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Muslim Asia.
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S&P's Special Reports: Standard & Poor's Weighs In On The U.S. Subprime Market
Standard & Poor's Weighs In On The U.S. Subprime Mortgage Market: The consequences of the U.S. housing market's excesses, a topic of speculation for the past couple of years, finally have begun to surface. It will take many months for the forces set in motion by the subprime decline to run their course, and for the ultimate impact to become obvious. Thus, today's prediction could become tomorrow's missed estimate.
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S&P's Special Reports: Beyond BRIC: Opportunities And Risks In Emerging Markets
Beyond BRIC: Growth Is Busting Out All Over: Standard & Poor's expects emerging markets and not just the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) to keep growing faster than developed economies, especially in terms of total GDP. But trade imbalances are endangering the world financial system.
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S&P's Special Reports: Beyond Asia, Uncertainty Awaits Global Automakers
For Global Automakers, The World Is Flat-Except In Asia: A tour of today's global auto market is hardly the stuff of a sunny afternoon cruise with the top down. Instead, carmakers find themselves forced to contend with a host of hazardous road conditions, ranging from uncertain economic prospects in major markets to fuel prices that look like they want to go only upward.
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S&P's Special Reports: Everchanging Health Care: Widening The Credit Chasm
U.S. Not-For-Profit Health Care Rating Trends Seen Stable Despite Pressures: The same forces that drove improved performance for so many credits beginning in 2004 contributed to the favorable performance trends and rating stability in 2006, and should continue in 2007 and 2008. Standard & Poor's also has a reasonable expectation that 2008 will demonstrate generally stable credit trends, despite rising legislative risk and incremental sector pressure.
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S&P's Special Reports: Midstream Energy's Infrastructure Boom
Opportunities Abound For The North American Midstream Energy Sector: After years of underappreciation and underinvestment by parent companies, the pipeline segment is in the midst of a building boom for infrastructure projects throughout North America. The need to get natural gas to east from west is the main force behind this. A range of projects is on the drawing board, including a massive pipeline that would move gas from Alaska's North Slope, with cost estimate...
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S&P's Special Reports: Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook: All Systems Go For A Fourth Year Of Solid Growth: The world economy is poised to maintain a healthy rate of expansion in 2007, with an unprecedented fourth consecutive year of more than 4% growth likely, in large part because of China, India, and the U.S. Of course, any prolonged deceleration in the U.S., which accounts for more than one-fifth of global GDP and is the world's biggest importer, would naturally curb growth globally. ...
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S&P's Special Reports: India: Back In Investment Grade After 16 Years
India: Back In Investment Grade After 16 Years: On Jan. 30, 2007, Standard & Poor's raised its sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of India to 'BBB-/A-3'. The upgrade to investment grade reflects the country's strong economic prospects and external balance sheet, and its deep capital market, which supports a weak, but improving, fiscal position.
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S&P's Special Reports: Special Anniversary Issue: 25 Years of Credit
A World Of Change For Financial Markets: In the 25 years since Standard & Poor's published its first issue of CreditWeek, the U.S. financial markets-and the bond market, in particular-have changed dramatically. The economy and financial markets have been largely deregulated. Financial instruments have multiplied, with far more alternatives now available for both issuers and buyers. Even the buyers of securities have changed.
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S&P's Special Reports: Fluctuating Oil Prices: Why A Minimal Impact...So Far
Fluctuating Oil Prices: Why The Impact Has So Far Been Minimal: Rising oil prices often fuel worries about the economy, but now falling prices are generating optimism. Since reaching a peak of $78 a barrel last summer, prices have dropped more than 35%. Unseasonably warm weather, stronger-than-expected supply, and weaker demand are among the reasons for the decline.
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S&P's Special Reports: The Web Effect: The Transformative Power Of The Web Is Here
Despite The Dot-Com Crash, E-Commerce Keeps Booming: The Internet has had a wild ride since taking off in the 1990s and creating the infamous dot-com bubble. But the Internet itself more than survived. Indeed, it has continued to expand and transform the economy, especially in business-to-business commerce, retailing, and advertising. Electronic commerce in its many forms has quickly become a fixture in the 21st century, as American consumers and investors use the ...
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S&P's Special Reports: Booming M&A Drive Global Credit Quality Slide
Booming M&A Drive Global Credit Quality Slide: Hyperliquidity, stoked by the heightened appetite for risk in global credit markets, appears ready to continue through 2007. With many borrowers, investors, and private-equity players growing increasingly comfortable with aggressive leverage, the current financial environment is powering a wave of leveraged M&A that likely will again reach record highs. Still, there will be a downside: Standard & Poor's exp...
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S&P's Special Reports: IFRS After Transition: What's In Store For Standard & Poor's Credit Analysis?
IFRS After Transition: What's In Store For Standard & Poor's Credit Analysis?: The transition to IFRS has been remarkably smooth for European companies, as year-end 2005 accounts were issued during 2006 without significant delay. Furthermore, none of the accounting changes resulting from the IFRS transition single-handedly caused a change in ratings, as Standard & Poor's assessment of underlying credit risk has not been significantly affected. Nevertheless,...
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S&P's Special Reports: Russia Post-2008: Road To Riches Or Slippery Slope
Which Way For Russia's Sovereign Rating: Road To Riches Or Slippery Slope: Russians elect a new president next year, opening the way for big uncertainties that could weaken creditworthiness and sap current strong growth. The new wealth has trickled down very unevenly, but Russians consumers are enjoying the growth spurt, while an emerging credit culture has sparked rapid expansion in banking and securitization.
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S&P's Special Reports: Why Recovery Ratings Are More Important Than Ever
Recovery Ratings Three Years On: Benign Leveraged Market Or Investor Amnesia?: The leveraged debt markets, dominated by continuing growth of the syndicated loans in the U.S. and Europe, have wrapped up the most successful year in history, by most commercial standards. But from a credit perspective, the very success of the current market raises a striking and potentially troubling pattern: credit spreads at the lower end of the rating spectrum remain flat or declini...
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S&P's Special Reports: A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology
A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology: The rating methodology used by Standard & Poor's focuses on fundamental analysis. Not surprisingly, our conceptual model hasn't changed significantly, but there have been some shifts over time that reflect greater complexity and volatility. Today's ratings analysis puts a lot more emphasis on cash flow and liquidity than in the past.
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S&P's Special Reports: Islamic Finance Comes Of Age
The Islamic Financial Industry Comes Of Age: Double-digit growth rates for Sharia-compliant assets over the past decade have naturally driven Islamic financiers to look beyond historical boundaries to explore new territories, both within and outside the Arab world. The size of global Sharia-compliant assets is estimated today at up to $400 billion, whereas Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes the potential market for Islamic financial services to be clos...
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S&P's Special Reports: Can Global Banking's Golden Age Continue?
Can Global Banking's Golden Age Continue?: The global financial sector is in robust health. As for global investment banking, the past three years have been among the best in the industry's history. We believe that structural improvements-resulting from global consolidation, improved risk management processes, tightening of costs, and better regulation-position the industry well to ride out a number of future risk scenarios.
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S&P's Special Reports: For TV,The Future Is Now-And It's On The Net
For TV, The Future Is Now-And It's On The Net: The world of television is undergoing rapid change. The threat is from the same source, the Internet, which promises to deliver a virtual programming universe to consumers anytime, anywhere. However, convergence in telecommunications and the Internet is coming and, in 2007, the major electronics makers will roll out new Net-ready TV sets, equipped with storage and computing power to rival current PCs.
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S&P's Special Reports: Unlocking The Power Of Quantitative Analytics
The Differing Role Of Quantitative Analytics In Credit And Equity Ratings: It stands to reason that quantitative methods are becoming an increasingly important part of financial modeling. After all, the primary purpose for using mathematical models in financial analysis is to evaluate risk so as to maximize returns on investments. Modern portfolio theory actually goes back more than 50 years, and Standard & Poor's has been developing quantitative models for man...
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S&P's Special Reports: Hedge Funds
What's Driving The Hedge Fund Boom?: Little did Alfred Winslow Jones know in 1949 that an investing strategy he's said to have created would turn into a $1 trillion-plus industry. And for much of the next 50 years, what we've come to know as hedge funds progressed slowly-before exploding.
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S&P's Special Reports: Health Care And The Challenges Of Aging Populations
Is Health Care Bad For Our Financial Health?: The U.S. spends more of its GDP on health care than any other major country, and the percentage is rising rapidly. Health care hit 15% of GDP in 2005, up from 10% a decade ago and 5% in the 1960s. If the current trend continues, health care spending will reach 35% of GDP and 36% of federal outlays (versus 20% today) in 2040 as the ranks of retirees swell and the percentage of the population covered by Medicare increases...
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S&P's Special Reports: Global Oil And Gas
Political Risk In The Global Oil Industry Comes In Several Flavors: It's critical, when determining an energy producer's credit health, to assess the political threats to production and future investment in the largest oil producing countries. This can be a difficult task: There are many forms of political risk, and the key political drivers among the major oil producing nations vary greatly. Different oil companies have more concentration-and thus more risk-than ...
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S&P's Special Reports: Mexico
In This Issue: Mexico: Taking Stock Of Change: The narrow margin of Felipe Calderon's victory, and the political challenges he will continue to face from his closest electoral opponent, could make it difficult for the new Administration to implement its policy agenda. However, the uncertainty on the political front is balanced by Mexico's good economic performance in 2006 and its track record of macroeconomic stability, providing a favorable context for a ...
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S&P's Special Reports: Emerging Markets
In This Issue: Developing Countries Are Actually Developing: The healthy world economy has created a boom in many developing countries. After decades during which the term "developing country" was a euphemism, growth has increased in most of the world's poorer economies and, as a group, at a rate that's far outpacing the developed world. Overall world growth was 4.8% last year and Standard & Poor's expects it to be 4.9% in 2006.
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S&P's Special Reports: Brazil 2006
In This Issue: Brazil Poised To Shape Its Future As Elections Loom: In the four years since the last presidential election in 2002, Brazil has made remarkable progress. The financial turmoil of that year's second half had extremely negative implications for credit quality across the spectrum. Since the last election, however, the government's continuation of sound macroeconomic policies resulted in reduced fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and four year...
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S&P's Special Reports: The Global Economic Outlook In 2006
In This Issue: The Global Economic Outlook In 2006: Another Year Of Leaping Hurdles?: If you had asked a year ago whether the world economy could prosper with oil prices at sustained levels of $70 a barrel or more, while central bankers in the developed nations kept pushing interest rates higher, the answer from investors and economists worldwide might well have been a quick and easy, "No." Yet that obvious outcome has not been the case. Despite those seemi...
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S&P's Special Reports: Asia-Pacific Insurance
In This Issue: Asia-Pacific Insurance: A Comparative Analysis Of Industry Risk 2006-2007: In its annual review of the economic and industry risk profiles of 14 Asia-Pacific region insurance markets, Standard & Poor's concluded that the risk profiles of life and non-life sectors in some countries improved in 2006. There have been ongoing improvements in several key economic and industry factors underpinning the financial strengths of the region's insuran...
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